In the summer of 2005, for the 1st time since 1992, our econometric model of the Nantucket Real Estate Market showed a deteriorating situation. Basically our model went from one of HOLD to one of SELL, in investment terms. This warning was three full years ahead of the coillapsed of the Real Estate market in the United States and proved to be profetic.

Similarly, in October of 2021 our model turned RED, meaning we were entering a downturn. Now, more than a year later, there is no question that we have entered a downturn as show by the YTD numbers in the table below. As you can see, the number of sales of single family homes in Nantucket fell 44% as compared to the same YTD period of 2021. Simirlarly, the sales dollar volume fell 27% to approximately $ 825 M as compared to the $ 1.15 Billion for the same period in FY 2021

Nevertheless, and in spite of headwinds in the Real Estate sector of the Vacation Sales Industry, such as interest rates, and marked declines in the stock market, the average and median prices of vacation homes in the Nantucket RE market have remained relatively stable. For that matter, prices have continued to move up with modest increases in Q3 of FY 2022, as shown in the graphs and tables below. Such trend is dues primarily to low inventory levels, see graph below, where inventory levels have hit record lows for the last three quarters of FY'2022 reaching a low point of 64 homes at the beginning of 2022.

Needless to say, ACK Distinctive Properties proprietary models are signaling continue weakness for the 2023 fiscal year in the Nantucket Vacation Rental market, with the expected consequences of lower prices by the summer of 2023. We will keep a close eye on the models, and will inform our customers and potential client of any changes that may occur.